The state of Pakistan today presents a dangerous paradox. The indiscriminate weaponisation of its civil society has eroded the very basis of a modern state premised upon a monopoly of violence. Its economy has twice reached the brink of collapse in the last ten years (1998-2008) yet the Military-ISI Complex in Pakistan is conjuring visions of a new caliphate centered in Islamabad. Since 2006 it has been convinced that the USA and NATO do not have the stomach to stay on in Afghanistan. It has now sold the thesis of a moderate Taliban to president Obama. The Americans and their friends have promised/given a staggering 30.8 Bn US$ to Islamabad. What is Pakistan doing with this bonanza? Satellite photographs indicate a dramatic expansion of Pakistani nuclear facilities at Dera Ghazi Khan (DGK) and Khusab. Pakistan is using the financial aid to rapidly increase its nuclear stockpile. What is lesser known is that terrorists have already attacked the Dera Ghazi Khan Complex. In Feb 2009 a Talibani suicide bomber killed 30 people in the mosque in DGK.
Pakistan is using the gifted dollars to buy Swedish AWACs, Orion Maritime Patrol Aircraft, F-16 fighters, Chinese frigates, JF17s jets and tanks. With this weapon buying spree the Pak economy could well head for a third economic crash landing because the basic flaw of their economy remains unaddressed. The number of people below poverty line in Pakistan has risen beyond the 50 per cent mark. It is this which forces the poor people to send their children to the madrasas for two square meal a day. It is this which perpetuates Zia’s ideology of jihad in Pakistan. Even as the US pours in its billions, counter insurgency experts like Kilcullen are predicting a systemic collapse of Pakistan in six months. The caliphate is about to crack under the weight of its own contradictions. Therein lie the makings of a monumental tragedy.
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