In these essays renowned academicians and practitioners discuss a broad spectrum of issues related to the analysis of business cycles and the use of leading indicators to predict turning points, i.e. peaks and troughs of economic activity. They reinforce the fact that the business cycle continues to be very relevant and that tracking, measuring and predicting cyclical fluctuations can greatly enhance our understanding of the economy as well as improve forecasting accuracy. The issues discussed in this collection include: Determination of the reference chronology of an economy’s cycles as well as those in various sectors, such as the financial and external sectors. Performance of leading indices in predicting peaks and troughs. Usefulness of consumer and business confidence indices in predicting turning points in economic activity. A comparative perspective on various recession-prediction models. Neftci’s sequential probability model, Probit model, and stock and Watson’s experimental recession indices. Business and growth rate cycles in the Indian economy. Contributors include notable economists and practitioners such as Nobel Laureate Lawrence Klein, Victor Zarnowitz, Andrew Filardo, Ernest Boehm and Vikas Chitre. This book will interest forecasters, economists, policy-makers, business and financial analysts, and research students.
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