Economic Downturns: Lessons from Country Experiences

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An economy’s prosperity is generally measured by specific indicators like international prices, costs of external financing, capital flows and trade flows. Rise in interest rates, tightening monetary conditions, nevertheless, natural calamities and disasters like the 9/11 and the resultant global imbalances in recent times have led economists worldwide to think of an impending recession. The year 2006 saw the US stating a Current Account Deficit of more than US$800 billion and, on the other hand, the oil-exporting countries reaped surpluses. In 2008, the world at large is expected to watch out for continuing stock market falls, less of foreign direct investment in both developing and developed economies, oil price shocks, further fall in house prices and, therefore, gloomier credit markets. Erosion of investor confidence is on the way given the huge losses reported by Banks, given the shattering aftermath of the subprime crisis. It is widely opined that even if the Fed keeps cutting interest rates, these cuts may not really be able to offset the rate cuts in the previous recessions, since consumers and businesses may not be able to borrow enough to keep up their spending. A long-standing view point is that a flexible economy, with maximum competition as its driving force is the most sought after method to withstand recession. In that continuum, flexible market-driven economies have been cited to be more resilient towards recessions. This book on Economic Downturns focuses more on some vital concepts of economic recessions, policy changes brought about by nations that ran into profound recessions and some country-experiences. In its various segments, it covers some important preventive measures prescribed by leading economists and experts.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR Jayshree Bose

Jayshree Bose is a first class postgraduate and National Merit Scholarship holder from Calcutta University. She has had a prolonged career in the Mumbai media circles with national financial dailies such as Business Standard and Financial Express and magazines such as Businessworld. She served there for over 16 years in senior capacities such as Associate Editor and Assistant Editor, and has been a prolific writer on topics related to banking, insurance and the economy, which are her prime areas of interest. During her tenure at Mumbai, some of her articles led to a series of financial sector reforms. She was earlier a consultant with the Institute for Financial Management and Research (IFMR), an ICICI Bank-sponsored Business School and Research Institute at Chennai. She has also written and edited books on banking and finance for KPMG and Jardine Fleming and brought out special issues of the Indian Banks' Association (IBA) Journal on a turnkey basis. Jayshree Bose is now a Faculty Member-Consulting Editor with Icfai Books, a division of the Icfai University Press, where her work involves writing articles and editing books on her special areas of interest such as banking, insurance, the economy and business strategy. She is also a regular contributor to professional magazines on insurance and banking.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR Keerti Mallela

Keerti Mallela is an MBA in Finance from the Icfai Business School. Prior to this she worked for the Icfai Business School Research Centre at Hyderabad as a Research Associate in 2004 and 2005, and later worked with the Indian School of Business as an Academic Associate and Researcher. She is also a qualified mutual funds advisor. Her skills include Financial Analysis and Security Analysis. Her areas of interest are Financial Management, Derivatives and Economics. Presently she is working as a Senior Faculty Associate at the Icfai Business School Research Centre, Chennai.