This book, based on a research project, deals with forecasts, long-term trends and appraisal of growth performance of Indian agriculture. There is hardly any comprehensive study dealing with all these aspects. The book is a unique attempt to assist policy makers, planners, government and agribusiness industry to take informed decisions in the face of uncertainties. The author has generated a short-term forecast of the output of seventeen crops by using highly sophisticated and accurate univariate forecasting techniques (Box-Jenkins ARIMA modeling and Exponential Smoothing) based on a data of five decades. An empirical investigation is also undertaken to test the validity and appropriateness of the forecasting techniques used. An endeavour has been made to trace long-term trend paths in terms of area, output and yield during the pre-green revolution, green revolution, post-green revolution and overall period of five decades of fitting eleven distinct functional forms. Moreover, compound annual growth rates of area, output and yield are also worked out during the pre-green revolution, green revolution, post-green revolution, pre-liberalisation, liberalisation and overall time periods. This book is appropriate for students, teachers, researchers and practitioners. Concepts are presented intuitively as well as formally, and in an easy-to-understand manner. Conclusions and recommendations emerging out of this book will prove highly useful to the planners and policy makers.
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